Friday, April 13, 2012

The Logic of Life: Uncovering the new economics of everything

Tim Harford who wrote the Undercover Economist is one of my favourite author and I guess he introduced me to the practical world of economics. For this book, I would recommend readers to make comparison to Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness" which I would cover in my next posting. This is because this book by Tim Harford is essentially on the validity of rational theory in economics while "Fooled by Randomness" is clearly not a fan of rational theory. With both sides clearly presenting convincing arguments, reading both of these books really set my brain on overdrive and I hope you will also find the same pleasure in reading the works of these two excellent authors. Well now, let us see what Tim Harford offers us first:


1) ........ people suddenly value objects more highly simply because they own them. They won't trade even when logic suggests they should. Economists call this 'the endowment effect'. (Realising 'endowment effect' is important to any investors as it explains why a lot of us failed as investors because of such emotional defect, i.e. we are not rational)

2) The endowment effect is irrational, and it's real - but it does not influence experienced people in realistic situations. (The key to overcoming our emotional defect is by realising it exists and with experience)

3) On playing poker: A player who never bluffs will never win a big pot, because on the rare occasions that he raises the betting, everyone else will fold before committing much money.

4) 'Of the two possible motives for bluffing,' wrote Von Neumann in Theory of Games, 'the first is to give a (false) impression of strength in (real) weakness; the second is the desire to give a (false) impression of weakness in (real) strength.'

5) The auction, by contrast, finds the biggest sucker. (Have you ever wondered why things need to be sold via auction. The primary purpose is to find the biggest sucker because usually the final price would far exceed the value of the material in an auction especially when there is active bidding. This is known as the 'winner's curse'. As such, to get the best value from an auction, we need to be rational and stick to our estimated value of the auction material)

6) ........... we are more fussy when we can afford to be and less fussy when we can't: crudely speaking, when it comes to the dating market, we settle for what we can get. (Of course, this is a general statement and applies to majority of the population but I would think it is true. Not between me and my wife though, ours is a match made in heaven. Hehe)

7) It is a harsh truth about the world of work that for many professionals, the more work you have done in the past, the more productive each additional working hour becomes: a perfect example of economies of scale. (That is the good thing of being a professionals such as Engineer, Doctor, etc. The reward usually commensurates with the effort put in. But don't forget the element of luck. Two people who is equally smart and puts in the same amount of effort will not enjoy the same amount of reward. The discrepancy is usually much smaller in professionals but more pronounced in professions where luck is perhaps more important - e.g. businessmen?)

8) .......what Adam Smith wrote about the excessive division of labour: 'The man whose whole life is spent in performing a few simple operations... has no occasion to exert his understanding or to exercise his invention in finding out expedients for removing difficulties which never occur. He... generally becomes as stupid and ignorant as it is possible for a human creature to become.'

9) When I wrote 'performance pay encourages performance', I was right, but with a crucial hidden premise - that performance can be measured, and thus rewarded. (Spot on. If someone refuses to accept pay based on measurable performance, I would doubt his capability).

10) So, workplace tournaments encourage workers to sabotage one another and to demand higher bonuses if success is largely a matter of luck. (Important to have transparent reward scheme and to award high performers in order to avoid encouraging workers from sabotaging one another)

11) ....... the more grotesque your boss's pay, and the less he has to do to earn it, the bigger the motivation for you to work with the aim of being promoted to what he has. (Honestly, I am not too sure about this statement. It could be a ploy to justify the high salary of bosses. Hehehe. But seriously, to me, this model has serious flaws because it can be subjected to exploitation. For instance, the boss may simply underpay his staff while giving them the false hope that they can enjoy the rewards "some day". When the staff realises his ploy, the staff will probably resign and then the boss will simply replace him with "fresh lamb". A more sustainable model would be based on performance all the way to the top)

12) Glaeser and Sacerdote found, for example, that it was tall buildings (rather than simply large ones) that really failed to keep the streets around them safe. Each additional floor in your building increases your risk of being robbed in the street or having your car stolen by two and a half percentage points - if your building has twelve storeys rather than two, your chance of being mugged rises by a quarter.

13) ......... your neighbourhood makes a big difference to your health and happiness, but that it will not drag down your test scores, lead you into crime, or prevent you from finding a job. Your neighbourhood matters, but it is not your destiny.

14) Countries that somehow created an environment in which smart, well-educated people could learn from one another would tend to grow rich. (The same applies to company?)

15) ....... struggling cities attract people with low skills, which means that they are unlikely to create the sort of exuberant innovation seen in more successful cities; and the more that modern economies depend on people with skills, the more serious and insuperable these disadvantages are likely to become. (This explains why property investors are always told to focus on location, location, location. This is because lousy location tends to be trapped in a vicious downward spiral of declining value!)

16) You could explain in a twenty-second TV spot why it's bad for the Prime Minister to be diverting taxpayers' money to his friend Tim, but good luck making the case for free trade in a sound bite. That's a major reason why trade barriers are a popular way to siphon cash to pressure groups: they are deliberately confusing, just as the stock option plans described back in Chapter Four are deliberately confusing. (For me, if any scheme is too confusing, it means that someone is trying to hide something and it is usually no good. For example, the subprime crisis with all the complicated CDS, bla, bla, bla which no one understood except that it created a bloody mess)

17) ..... it's rational to campaign for subsidies if you're in an industry that's expensive to enter and has poor long-term prospects, such as the car or steel industry.

18) A society with more capital investment and more entrepreneurship is also a society that is likely to enjoy higher wages.

In summary, this book provides pleasurable reading especially when you are in the airport waiting for the next flight. I may be ignorant and would like to apologise because I tend to agree with the popular opinion that economist can explain a lot of matters in hindsight but we should not rely on them for predictions about the future. Economics depend too much on a lot of factors such as human behaviour, environment, etc. in order for it to be an established branch of science and we should not expect it to be at the same level as physics, chemistry or engineering. But don't get me wrong, learning from what has happened previously and attempts to understand the underlying causes behind previous economic behaviour is important in order to prevent us from repeating the same mistake. For that, economics does have a role to play as long as we realise its limitations.

I would strongly recommend reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb after reading this book. It would make you think more!

Sunday, March 4, 2012

The Lazy Millionaire by Marc Fisher

At first glance, this book doesn't seem to fit the theme of this blog, i.e. business and management books but then again, we can always learn something from anywhere right? In life, there are many ways to define success ranging to how many lives that you have touched and make it better, a life of no regrets and yes of course, how financially successful you are. I am a firm believer that it is alright to make money and lots of money as long as you did it legally, morally and your conscience is clear. Of course moral and conscience can be subjective and I don't think I have reached the level to be fully "enlightened" on this subject. To me, the best way to judge whether you are successful in life or not is the way you are remembered by your family and friends. Anyway, back to the issue of being a lazy millionaire which is the main topic covered in the book. I find the title inaccurate as the more I read the book, I find that there is no way that you can be a millionaire by being lazy. I am not sure whether the title is intended to generate more sales (everyone hopes to be a millionaire with the least of effort) or it actually refers to the stage where you can be lazy after you have successfully manage your finances such that you can actually relax and enjoy life. I think Marc Fisher is referring to the latter and as you will see, it certainly requires a lot of sacrifice and planning in order to reach the stage where we can "afford" to be lazy.


Being a millionaire by your own making (rather than luck/fluke like winning a lottery. But don't get me wrong, you still need a little bit of luck in order to be a millionaire) certainly requires some skills in business and management and as usual, the following are some key insights which I would like to share with all of you aspiring leaders out there:

1) ....... the lazy millionaire tries to use his money (or the bank's money!) to acquire assets instead of creating liabilities! (This set the theme of the book. Can you put off buying that new sport car and use your money to buy assets, e.g. income generating properties, shares, etc.)

2) "If you don't do it right away, you'll never do it!" (We are all guilty of procrastination)

3) "Perfectionism is spelled PARALYSIS!" (This relates to the point above. Sometimes we put off doing something because we wanted to achieve perfection but at the end of the day, ended up not doing it all. To be successful, we must be take action!)

4) If each of us hires people who are smaller than we are, we shall become a company of dwarfs. But if each of us hires people who are bigger than we are, we shall become a company of giants. (This is a recurring theme in this blog. A successful leader / manager will strive to surround himself with people who complements our skills and offer something which he/she lacks. Everybody need good teammates)

5) If something can go well, even if there is a chance that it will go wrong, it WILL go well!

6) The Lazy Millionaire is POSITIVE (I guess the Author is trying to make a point that to be a successful person, we have to be positive because pessimism can be paralysing and how can we move forward if we do not dare to take even one step?)

7) Instead of working, loosen your tie, put your feet up on your desk, and ask yourself what you could do to earn more money for your company! (I think the message from the Author is that we must find sometime to think about how to be more profitable. I guess this applies to everything in life. Whether it is about making money or helping others, we must first tune our own mind towards that objective. But if we are too busy just going through life's routines, time will fly and by the time we realised it, it would be too late)

8) On rules for successful afternoon thinking what you could do to earn more money:

FIRST RULE
Don't choose a workday, when you are exhausted, for this task.
You need to be at your best.
You can work when....you are tired!
But when the time comes to think (of profitable ideas) you need to be as fresh as a rose.
In the end, that's how you will be able to smell them!
If you are never as fresh as a rose, it's because you're working too hard....
If you're working too hard, it's because you aren't working effectively....
If you aren't working effectively, you aren't earning enough money....
And if you aren't earning enough money, you won't have any free time....

As a final word, I must say that it is important to differentiate between actual planning and execution (Point 8 above encourages us to think and plan) from daydreaming. A lot of people spent a lot of time thinking of how to get rich (the same for getting fit and healthy, be a better person, etc.) but it never gets implemented. With that, I wish you good luck!

Friday, March 2, 2012

Why Stocks Beat Gold and Bonds by Warren Buffet

In an article published in Fortune Asia Pacific Edition, February 27, 2012, Number 3, the Oracle of Omaha explains why equities almost always beat the alternatives over time and I would like to share many useful insights summarised below:

1) ......... investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date. (This definition by Mr. Buffet is very important - some sacrifice now is always necessary for a better future. Investing is about delaying some immediate pleasure so that we can enjoy more in the future).

2) Investment that are denominated in a given currency such as money-market funds, bonds, and other instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries principally due to INFLATION. With the current uncontrolled printing of money in US and Europe, we will likely see further loss of purchasing power in paper money.

3) The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer's hope that someone else - who also knows that the assets will be forever unproductive - will pay more for them in the future. Tulips, of all things, briefly became a favorite of such buyers in the 17th century.

This type of investment requires an expanding pool of buyers, who, in turn, are enticed because they believe the buying pool will expand still further. Owners are not inspired by what the asset itself can produce - it will remain lifeless forever - but rather by the belief that others will desire it even more avidly in the future.

The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money. (After reading the above, I am not sure what crosses your mind but I sure feel investing in gold is just like a big pyramid scheme. You may make money if you are at the top of the pyramid and get out before the music stops!).

4) Today the world's gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. At $1,750 per ounce - gold's price as I write this - its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let's now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all US cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world's most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense felling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

5) My own preference - and you knew this was coming - is our third category: investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms or real estate. (The key word is productive assets).

Happy investing! And by the way, I am ok with gambling (or some people call it speculating) as long as we don't try to fool ourselves by calling it investing.